Updates in Brentwood Real Estate sales.
Trends in Real Estate occur over longer time rather than looking at single time periods. For example, to say that 33 homes were bought in Brentwood in December 0f 2007 (which is true, by the way), says little about the state of the market. However, when put into context, one can see how things have changed over the time periods they are interested in. Annual looks give a longer term look at trends, which shows the interest in purchase over longer times. Here are annual looks over the past few years:
2007: 475
2006: 731
2005: 1056
2004: 1023
2003: 873
2002: 808
2001: 659
As can be easily seen, as prices were going up, more homes were purchased/sold due to the fact, early on, at least, there were more buyers than sellers. As the supply of homes increased (did you notice any new homes being built in Brentwood early in ths century?), the balance changed, and the Buyers became fewer while the homes on market continued to increase, sales declined. This shows that independent of price, when buyers (demand) is less than supply, the number of transactions falls. In our case, dramatically.
Let’s look at a more recent (and less telling, but very interesting) trend. Recent sales in Brentwood appear to be increasing, but how much?
September 2007: 29
October 2007: 33
November 2007: 34
December 2007: 33
January 2008: 24
February 2008: 49
March 2008 (thru 3/25): 28
Although March results are not complete, they indicate more homes being purchased in March than in February (most closings occur in the last week of the month).
Despite what you may hear on the radio, see on television, or read in the papers, people are out and looking for homes. What drives them to purchase is pretty simple. When they see a home that they like and they can afford it, they buy it.
Even with all of the objections that outsiders may have in the purchase of real estate, people still are buying. Conventional wisdom usually is not correct. The market in Brentwood is healing and it will take more time. But indications are that we are out of the intensive care unit and in recovery.
Please call anytime at (925) 308-7045 if you have any questions.
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I’m not sure if volume of sales/closings really tells you about the health of the local housing market. If the S&P500 fell 10 months in a row, but to record volume, would you call that a healthy market?
The key metric would be the underlying valuation of homes. When you look at homes literally purchased a year ago in Brentwood and then on the market now (typically via a short sale or REO), you see phenomenal price decreases. Yes, at a low enough price there will be a sale, but that doesn’t mean things are getting any better.
We may be out of the Intensive care unit, but we’re still in critical condition. Arm’s are still maturing and the REO market may still have some legs left
To be sure, the REO market is alive and well, ARM’s are adjusting and there is still a lot of homes on market. However, the inventory is down, we are seeing multiple offers on homes that are new to market; more and more buyers appear to be interested, real investors (those who buy for the long run) are returning to the market as well. Critical care? Only if there is another gunshot to the head, in my opinion. While the jobs impact also has impact on the housing market, we have only seen seasonal slowdown in our area, yet to be determined what the overall business slowdown impact may be.
If you are looking to buy and waiting for the bottom, you will miss it, to be sure. If you are purchasing for you residence, it should not matter what the price is, if you can afford the property and you think you can turn it into a place you will love. If you are an investor and the numbers penvil in, again, the price is not the question, it is the income it produces.
To merely stand aside and moan about the prices leaves one without a means to fulfill their wish of owning real estate.
If your source of information is the media, you are not getting the full picture.